Jihad—You Need a Score Card
Warren Leming wrote:
The US is now looking at China, Libya and Iran-as aiding in the War Against ........ ( fill in this space.) What you really need is a geo-political score card, noting just who is lining up with whom-and under what conditions.
Not a complete list, but will hit some of the majors.
Afghanistan: At war for decades. A CIA supported co-alition of US funded Islamic fighters helped drive the Soviets out of the country in the 1980's. Having created this lethal group, the US walked away. The Islamic fighters did not. Bin Laden among them, they set out to wage war against the enemies of Islam.. some of whom turned out to be the people who had previously funded them against the Soviets. The Taliban are an extremely conservative group of Islamic militants who then went to war with their former allies against the Russians. They are militant, fanatical, repressive and favor Wahabbi Sunni Islam. They preach Jihad against ALL infidels. Bin Laden is linked by marriage to the Taliban, and has helped fund them. Most of the Muslim world has rejected the extremist Taliban, but they do appeal to young Muslims protesting corruption, repression and a turning from fundamentalist Islam.
In a stunning move recently, the Taliban assassinated Ahmed Masood, the leader of the Northern Alliance, the only group remaining in Afghanistan still fighting the Taliban. The Alliance holds the northern portion of the country, and are the only force capable of resisting the Taliban. Masood's death is a huge blow to the Alliance. Their future is in doubt- but for American military intervention. This will in all probability happen. They remain the only local force to arm and finance against the Taliban.
Bosnia Europeans were rattled to learn that Islamic militants, trained and armed during the Afghan War were now in a European theater of operation. No one was happy about this: least of all the German, French and English who have Islamic groups within their own borders. Suddenly, Western Europe, for the first time in several hundred years-, found itself looking at a Christian Islamic confrontation . Bin Laden helped aid those resisting the Croats and Serbs, -and became a growing influence within militant, potentially anti Western Islamic forces.
Chechnya A debacle for the Russians, as was Afghanistan. The Chechen's are Muslim and have been aided by the radical Muslim groups with whom Bin Laden has been associated. The battle here reveals the depth of Muslim resistance, and the low tech tactics of the Russian army, which has waged a brutal, horrific campaign: whole cities laid waste by tanks and artillery. The Chechen's have taken the war to Moscow, where a series of still unexplained bombings have been attributed to them. Russian retaliation has been swift and indiscriminate. Russia has a huge Muslim population.
Peoples Republic of China China considers the US arrogant, aggressive and still imperialist. Taiwan still a thorn in its considerable side. Has a significant Muslim population and is sensitive to any US activity at its borders. Has a border with Afghanistan and has pursued a relation with the Taliban, who China considers a fait accompli. Xinjiang region of China has seen Muslim separatist activity: bombings. China is urging a UN coalition against terror, as a US led crusade has anti Chinese potential. Extremely wary of US policy.
Egypt Beset by radical Muslim groups and a culture of corruption. Bin Laden has an Egyptian aide, Ayman al Zawahiri. Has a tense truce with the Israeli's but is sometimes prompted by overwhelmingly pro Palestinian sentiment within Egypt, which sees Israel as an enemy. Egypt is extremely fragile, as are many of the Middle Eastern countries, and has made significant and frequently bumbling attempts to isolate and put down the Muslim radical insurrection fast growing within it. A crusade of the American variety could easily bring on a revolution whose outcome in Egypt could be disastrous for the current regime.
England Nothing in particular to be gained here by an American led crusade, and much to lose given the significant Muslim populations in England, and English business interests in the Middle East. England is currently acting as a broker for the US, in the person of Tony Blair. Blair is under considerable pressure from the Left Labour rump, who remain critical of his power brokering for the US. The Europeans resent England's ever present claim to a "special" relationship with the Americans, coupled with English resistance to joining the European Union. Should the English miscalculate, they could find themselves frozen out of Europe, hurt by trade sanctions, and harmed by their claims of solidarity with the Americans.
France France, ever wary of US policy is increasingly vocal and not sanguine about a US crusade. The French are the final "Europeans" in their intransigent efforts to limit the US role in the world. France has a Muslim population, and its legacy in Algeria may have paved the way for militarist extremism there. The Algerians are in the midst of a low intensity civil war which has killed tens of thousands and goes to the heart of Muslim extremism. The Algerian military reversed a Muslim won election and suppressed Islamic extremists. Algeria is a powder keg.
Germany Germany is concerned about Muslim activity within its own borders, and the German Left are now rallying against plans to expand the German army which could play a major role in a US co-alition against Bin Laden. The German foreign office is significantly Left of the US State Dept. , which it considers bellicose and aggressive. The Germans want a rapprochement with the Muslim world, and no longer wish to see a US manipulation of NATO for its own foreign policy ends. US policy could drive a deep wedge between the US and the Germans, French and English- should things go badly.
India Jealous of US interest in Pakistan, and still at war with Pakistan over Kashmir. Harkat ul Ansar units trained in Pakistan have fought with the Taliban, and are Bin Laden trained. They pose an Islamic threat to India, which is seen as an infidel nation. India's borders are at risk in both Pakistan and Afghanistan, and it is well aware of what US aid produced in Afghanistan: chaos and unending civil war. Beset with corruption, infra structural poverty, and countless social problems, India remains a nation moving toward violent social change.
Iran A successful Islamic revolution here, brought on by US support for the Shah of Iran, and a CIA coup which brought him to power in 1954. Resists the Taliban, who it considers backward, militant, and dangerous. Still on the American list of "terrorist" states, and no friend to the US, Iran could act as a legitimate foil to radical Islam, provided the US can find a way to accommodate itself to Iran. Not likely. Iran has its own problems with the country divided between fundamentalist Islamic militants and the more moderate wing now in power.
Iraq Saddam Hussein is an enemy of the United States. He has no love for the Islamic groups, who could pose a threat to his secular regime. But given the force of US sanctions and attempts to bring him down, Hussein may well be giving aid to Islamic militants if only because of the US efforts to eradicate him. Possible scenario: a pariah state (which fought a bloody war with Iran) with nowhere to turn but for Bin Laden and his ilk.
Israel US interests and Israeli interests are now forged so tightly that no US policy is possible independent of, at the very least, consultation. The Israeli's can be remarkably independent. Witness their strafing and shelling of a US spy ship they did not want monitoring their military frequencies during one of the Arab Israeli conflicts. Sharon is perhaps the most hated man in the Arab world currently, and his leadership of the country does not augur well for a US alliance that would involve the Israelis. The current and fragile truce with the Palestinians is good evidence of Israeli response to US pressure. The fact that the foreign policies are interdependent has complicated US relations in the Middle East by a factor just under one billion to the power of nine.
Jordan Caught between all the forces currently operating: Iraq, the US, Israel, and Islam. Must maintain its fragile autonomy no matter what the outcome of any armed conflict. Central strategically, but concerned lest it appear too favorable to "any" side. Modernizing efforts of the monarchy have made Jordan the target of militant Islam. Not a friend to militant Islam, it must also remain open to the fundamentalists should they come to power in the region.
Libya Previously the home of "terrorism" according to the US, Libya is still being isolated by the US, but no longer leads the pack. Both provocateur and the victim of a campaign of US disinformation, Ghaddafi is that not unknown combination of autocrat and democrat who has brought some progress to his country, financed Palestinian efforts with his oil money, and seen one of his children killed and his family left hospitalized by a US air strike clearly intended to kill him. It is efforts like these that produce worldwide incomprehension at American aims and actions. Again, as in the Sudan debacle, a CIA operation. Libya may even have a moderating effect on Islamic militants, as Ghaddafi has always seen himself as leading a Pan African co-alition which would address some of the continents incredible list of social, political and economic problems. Not himself an Islamic fundamentalist, Ghaddafi is well aware of the fundamentalist agenda which is both regressive and progressive.
Palestine Given Israeli intransigence and Arafat's inability to control all the factions, the Palestinians are now seeing a swing to the radical, Muslim militancy of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The Palestinian masses are caught between the suicidal militants who will accept nothing but Israel's destruction, and the Israelis, who must respond to each and every incident with firepower. A no win for everyone involved, with no end to the conflict in sight. Sharon has only military solutions, as do Hamas and Jihad. Arrafat seems ineffectual when not bewildered, leaving the US making desperate attempts at peace keeping, while funding the Israelis military machine. A peace is not in the interest of the Israeli Right or the Islamic militants. All sides may have, with some US complicity, simply committed themselves to unending decades of low level conflict i.e. a perpetual state of war in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia A conservative to reactionary Arab state, riddled with cronyism and billions in oil money. Volatile combination. Bin Laden's father made his fortune serving the Saudi monarchy. Recognizes the Taliban, while privately fearful of the radical trends which this form of Islam represent for them. Bin Laden, as a former Saudi ( his citizenship was revoked) is waging a war to preserve Saudi integrity, while posing a significant threat to a regime he considers dishonored. The country is home to Islam's holiest shrines, and the Saudis have committed to US military hegemony. This may prove to be the contradiction that will create havoc for them.
Sudan Expelled Bin Laden under US pressure. Were rocketed by Clinton, and lost the major anti malaria manufacturing facility in Africa as a result of a botched job of intelligence by the CIA. Decades long civil war pitting Christians against Islam. No love for the US. But unable to muster much military might for anyone given their long and debilitating civil war. Add them to the victims of the Cold War, like Afghanistan.
Syria Pitted against Israel, and another US "terrorist" regime. The Syrians are the foil to Israel in Lebanon, and have their own internal problems balancing their secularist regime against Islamic militants within. Has attempted to rehabilitate itself, despite US efforts, and Israeli complicity, in keeping it isolated and at risk. Maintains a significant armed force in Lebanon, where it has abetted a civil war which has kept Lebanon neutralized and the victim of continual low level conflict. Beirut is now a synonym for any area destroyed by continual fighting.
Yemen Bin Laden has a long and familial association with the country. Site of the USS Cole incident, now laid at Bin Laden's all too willing feet. Long history of political and governmental instability for the usual reasons: corruption et. al. Would not play a major role but as a fueling station or air-transfer point.